Over 1.5 goals@1.54
Over 1.5
65%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 15Saturday, 7 November 2026 · The Valley
Charlton
20th · 14 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Sheffield Utd
10th · 19 pts27% Charlton
28% Draw
45% Sheffield
OUR PICK
Sheffield Utd to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.23
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.29
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.72X3.5322.23
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.62
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.37
X2
73%
Season stats
CharltonSheffield Utd0.8Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game1.2
1.08Points per game1.46
23%Win rate38%
-10Goal difference2
2Form, last 5 (pts)10
Charlton form
LLLDDA Middlesbrough3–0
H Norwich1–3
A Watford2–0
A Burnley2–2
H Bristol City1–1
Sheffield Utd form
WDWLWH Wrexham1–0
H Derby1–1
A Bristol City0–1
A Portsmouth3–2
H Lincoln3–0
Head to head
2
Charlton
1
Draw
2
Sheffield
Jan 2026Charlton – Sheffield Utd1–0
Sept 2025Sheffield Utd – Charlton0–1
Mar 2017Sheffield Utd – Charlton2–1
Nov 2016Charlton – Sheffield Utd1–1
Mar 2014Sheffield Utd – Charlton2–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Sheffield Utd slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.93 for Charlton, 1.29 for Sheffield Utd), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Charlton sit 20th on 14 points; Sheffield Utd are 10th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.