Over 1.5 goals@1.52
Over 1.5
66%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · The Valley
Charlton
20th · 14 pts1–1FULL TIME
Bristol City
14th · 18 pts31% Charlton
29% Draw
40% Bristol
OUR PICK
Bristol City to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.49
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.22
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.20X3.5122.49
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.65
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.40
12
71%
Season stats
CharltonBristol City0.8Goals per game1.2
1.6Conceded per game1.3
1.08Points per game1.38
23%Win rate38%
-10Goal difference-2
2Form, last 5 (pts)5
Charlton form
LLLDDA Middlesbrough3–0
H Norwich1–3
A Watford2–0
A Burnley2–2
H Bristol City1–1
Bristol City form
WDLLDA Bolton2–3
A Stoke City0–0
H Sheffield Utd0–1
H Blackburn0–1
A Charlton1–1
Head to head
1
Charlton
2
Draw
2
Bristol
Oct 2026Charlton – Bristol City1–1
Apr 2026Charlton – Bristol City1–2
Aug 2025Bristol City – Charlton0–0
Dec 2019Charlton – Bristol City3–2
Oct 2019Bristol City – Charlton2–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Charlton 31%, the draw 29%, Bristol City 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.04 for Charlton, 1.22 for Bristol City), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Charlton sit 20th on 14 points; Bristol City are 14th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.