Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · The Valley
Charlton
20th · 14 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Bolton
19th · 14 pts39% Charlton
25% Draw
36% Bolton
OUR PICK
Charlton to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.57
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.35
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.57X3.9322.80
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
CharltonBolton0.8Goals per game1.4
1.6Conceded per game2.0
1.08Points per game1.08
23%Win rate31%
-10Goal difference-8
2Form, last 5 (pts)4
Charlton form
LLLDDA Middlesbrough3–0
H Norwich1–3
A Watford2–0
A Burnley2–2
H Bristol City1–1
Bolton form
LLDWLH Bristol City2–3
H Middlesbrough1–5
A Southampton0–0
A Wolves1–3
H Stoke City1–2
Head to head
2
Charlton
1
Draw
2
Bolton
Jan 2025Bolton – Charlton1–2
Aug 2024Charlton – Bolton2–0
Feb 2024Bolton – Charlton3–3
Oct 2023Charlton – Bolton0–2
Jan 2023Charlton – Bolton1–2
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Charlton 39%, the draw 25%, Bolton 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.42 for Charlton, 1.35 for Bolton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Charlton sit 20th on 14 points; Bolton are 19th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.