Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
BRASerie A · Matchday 34Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Arena Condá
Chapecoense-sc
20th · 21 pts23:30KICK-OFF WAT
Mirassol
16th · 37 pts31% Chapecoense-sc
25% Draw
44% Mirassol
OUR PICK
Mirassol to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.52
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.25X3.9622.27
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Chapecoense-scMirassol1.0Goals per game1.1
2.1Conceded per game1.4
0.66Points per game1.12
13%Win rate27%
-34Goal difference-10
3Form, last 5 (pts)5
Chapecoense-sc form
LWLLLA RB Bragantino3–0
H Fluminense2–1
A Botafogo1–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–4
A Vitoria4–0
Mirassol form
LDWLDA Corinthians2–0
H Sao Paulo1–1
H Internacional2–0
A Bahia1–0
A RB Bragantino1–1
Head to head
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draw
4
Mirassol
May 2026Mirassol – Chapecoense-sc1–1
Nov 2024Mirassol – Chapecoense-sc1–0
Aug 2024Chapecoense-sc – Mirassol0–1
Jul 2023Chapecoense-sc – Mirassol0–1
Apr 2023Mirassol – Chapecoense-sc1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Mirassol slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.23 for Chapecoense-sc, 1.52 for Mirassol), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th on 21 points; Mirassol are 16th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.