Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
BRASerie A · Matchday 32Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Arena Condá
Chapecoense-sc
20th · 21 pts2–1FULL TIME
Fluminense
4th · 54 pts18% Chapecoense-sc
20% Draw
61% Fluminense
OUR PICK
Fluminense to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
1.07 – 2.11
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.42X4.9021.64
Goals 2.5Over1.63Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.23
X2
82%
Season stats
Chapecoense-scFluminense1.0Goals per game1.6
2.1Conceded per game1.3
0.66Points per game1.64
13%Win rate45%
-34Goal difference10
3Form, last 5 (pts)6
Chapecoense-sc form
LWLLLA RB Bragantino3–0
H Fluminense2–1
A Botafogo1–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–4
A Vitoria4–0
Fluminense form
WLWLLH Internacional2–1
A Chapecoense-sc2–1
A Palmeiras0–1
H Santos1–2
H Palmeiras1–2
Head to head
1
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draw
3
Fluminense
Oct 2026Chapecoense-sc – Fluminense2–1
Apr 2026Fluminense – Chapecoense-sc2–1
Dec 2021Fluminense – Chapecoense-sc3–0
Sept 2021Chapecoense-sc – Fluminense1–2
Oct 2019Fluminense – Chapecoense-SC1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Fluminense clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.07 for Chapecoense-sc, 2.11 for Fluminense), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th on 21 points; Fluminense are 4th on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.