Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
BRASerie A · Matchday 30Monday, 12 October 2026 · Arena Condá
Chapecoense-sc
20th · 21 pts1–4FULL TIME
Atletico Paranaense
5th · 54 pts22% Chapecoense-sc
23% Draw
55% Atletico
OUR PICK
Atletico Paranaense to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.84
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.53X4.3921.81
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
Chapecoense-scAtletico Paranaense1.0Goals per game1.5
2.1Conceded per game1.2
0.66Points per game1.64
13%Win rate45%
-34Goal difference10
3Form, last 5 (pts)5
Chapecoense-sc form
LWLLLA RB Bragantino3–0
H Fluminense2–1
A Botafogo1–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–4
A Vitoria4–0
Atletico Paranaense form
LDLWDA Gremio2–0
A Vitoria1–1
H Palmeiras0–2
A Chapecoense-sc1–4
H Atletico-MG2–2
Head to head
0
Chapecoense-sc
2
Draw
3
Atletico
Oct 2026Chapecoense-sc – Atletico Paranaense1–4
Apr 2026Atletico Paranaense – Chapecoense-sc2–0
Sept 2025Chapecoense-sc – Atletico Paranaense2–3
May 2025Atletico Paranaense – Chapecoense-sc1–1
Oct 2021Chapecoense-sc – Atletico Paranaense1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Paranaense clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.08 for Chapecoense-sc, 1.84 for Atletico Paranaense), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th on 21 points; Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.