Over 1.5 goals@2.00
Over 1.5
50%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estadio de Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
1–0FULL TIME
Patronato
37% Chacarita
34% Draw
29% Patronato
OUR PICK
Chacarita Juniors to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.71
Expected goals
0.91 – 0.77
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.71X2.9323.45
Goals 2.5Over3.93Under1.31
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.47
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.31
Under 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.47
NG
68%
Double chance@1.41
1X
71%
Chacarita Juniors form
WWWLWH Nueva Chicago2–0
A Temperley0–1
H Deportivo Maipu1–0
A Almagro2–1
H Patronato1–0
Patronato form
LLWLWH Agropecuario0–2
A Tristan Suarez1–0
H Club Atlético Güemes2–0
A Chacarita Juniors1–0
H San Martin S.J.3–0
Head to head
2
Chacarita
0
Draw
3
Patronato
Oct 2026Chacarita Juniors – Patronato1–0
May 2026Patronato – Chacarita Juniors2–0
Sept 2024Chacarita Juniors – Patronato1–0
May 2024Patronato – Chacarita Juniors2–0
Feb 2018Patronato – Chacarita Juniors3–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Chacarita Juniors 37%, the draw 34%, Patronato 29%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.91 for Chacarita Juniors, 0.77 for Patronato), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.