MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Hidalgo

CF Pachuca

12th · 19 pts

3–3FULL TIME

Necaxa

17th · 10 pts

66% CF

20% Draw

13% Necaxa

OUR PICK

CF Pachuca to win

Model probability 66% · fair odds

1.51

Expected goals

1.99 – 0.76

Confidence

High

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.51X4.9027.47

Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97

Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.32

Over 1.5

76%

Over/Under 2.5@1.93

Over 2.5

52%

Both teams to score@1.85

54%

Double chance@1.15

87%

Season stats

CF PachucaNecaxa

1.7Goals per game1.1

1.3Conceded per game1.9

1.27Points per game0.67

33%Win rate13%

6Goal difference-12

7Form, last 5 (pts)2

CF Pachuca form

WWLLD

H Tigres UANL3–0

A Club America1–2

H Cruz Azul1–2

A Monterrey2–1

H Necaxa3–3

Necaxa form

LDLLD

A Santos Laguna1–0

H FC Juarez1–1

A Guadalajara Chivas1–0

H Atlas0–2

A CF Pachuca3–3

Head to head

Draw

Necaxa

Oct 2026CF Pachuca – Necaxa3–3

Mar 2026CF Pachuca – Necaxa2–1

Oct 2025Necaxa – CF Pachuca0–1

Apr 2025Necaxa – CF Pachuca3–5

Nov 2024CF Pachuca – Necaxa6–2

Liga MX table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Club America15+1529

2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129

3Cruz Azul15+1029

4Atlas15027

5Toluca15+1024

6Club Tijuana15+422

7Leon15+222

8Santos Laguna15+122

9Monterrey14+521

10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220

Match preview

Our model makes CF Pachuca clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.99 for CF Pachuca, 0.76 for Necaxa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

CF Pachuca sit 12th on 19 points; Necaxa are 17th on 10.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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