Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
ITASerie B · Matchday 9Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Dino Manuzzi
Cesena
12th · 12 pts2–1FULL TIME
Empoli
18th · 8 pts47% Cesena
26% Draw
27% Empoli
OUR PICK
Cesena to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.04
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X3.7923.69
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.98
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.98
NG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
CesenaEmpoli1.1Goals per game1.0
1.4Conceded per game1.7
1.20Points per game0.80
20%Win rate20%
-3Goal difference-7
5Form, last 5 (pts)2
Cesena form
DWLDLA Sudtirol1–1
H Empoli2–1
A Modena3–0
H Avellino1–1
A Benevento2–0
Empoli form
DLLDLH Juve Stabia2–2
A Cesena2–1
H Vicenza Virtus0–2
A Ascoli1–1
H Palermo2–4
Head to head
1
Cesena
1
Draw
3
Empoli
Oct 2026Cesena – Empoli2–1
Feb 2026Empoli – Cesena1–1
Jan 2026Cesena – Empoli0–1
Apr 2018Cesena – Empoli2–3
Nov 2017Empoli – Cesena5–3
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Cesena slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.45 for Cesena, 1.04 for Empoli), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cesena sit 12th on 12 points; Empoli are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.