ITASerie B · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Cesena

12th · 12 pts

15:00KICK-OFF WAT

Catanzaro

20th · 6 pts

57% Cesena

22% Draw

21% Catanzaro

OUR PICK

Cesena to win

Model probability 57% · fair odds

1.76

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.08

Confidence

Medium

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.76X4.5324.76

Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25

Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.25

Over 1.5

80%

Over/Under 2.5@1.73

Over 2.5

58%

Both teams to score@1.77

56%

Double chance@1.27

79%

Season stats

CesenaCatanzaro

1.1Goals per game1.1

1.4Conceded per game2.2

1.20Points per game0.60

20%Win rate10%

-3Goal difference-11

5Form, last 5 (pts)3

Cesena form

DWLDL

A Sudtirol1–1

H Empoli2–1

A Modena3–0

H Avellino1–1

A Benevento2–0

Catanzaro form

DDLDL

H Padova1–1

A Benevento1–1

H Ascoli1–6

A Hellas Verona2–2

H Mantova1–3

Head to head

Cesena

Draw

Catanzaro

Mar 2026Cesena – Catanzaro3–1

Dec 2025Catanzaro – Cesena2–0

May 2025Catanzaro – Cesena1–0

Feb 2025Catanzaro – Cesena4–2

Aug 2024Cesena – Catanzaro2–0

Serie B table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Palermo10+1226

2Modena10+820

3Ascoli10+1019

4Mantova10+418

5Avellino10+515

6Benevento10+415

7Hellas Verona10+615

8Pisa10+315

9Padova10-114

10Sudtirol10+114

Match preview

Our model makes Cesena clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.92 for Cesena, 1.08 for Catanzaro), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Cesena sit 12th on 12 points; Catanzaro are 20th on 6.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

Discuss on Telegram More Serie B tips