Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
ITASerie B · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Dino Manuzzi
Cesena
12th · 12 pts1–1FULL TIME
Avellino
5th · 15 pts29% Cesena
27% Draw
44% Avellino
OUR PICK
Avellino to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.43X3.7622.26
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.84
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
CesenaAvellino1.1Goals per game1.5
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.20Points per game1.50
20%Win rate40%
-3Goal difference5
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Cesena form
DWLDLA Sudtirol1–1
H Empoli2–1
A Modena3–0
H Avellino1–1
A Benevento2–0
Avellino form
WDLDWH Pisa2–0
A Virtus Entella1–1
H Padova0–1
A Cesena1–1
H Sampdoria4–1
Head to head
2
Cesena
2
Draw
1
Avellino
Oct 2026Cesena – Avellino1–1
Jan 2026Avellino – Cesena3–1
Nov 2025Cesena – Avellino3–0
Feb 2018Avellino – Cesena1–1
Sept 2017Cesena – Avellino3–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Avellino slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.09 for Cesena, 1.41 for Avellino), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cesena sit 12th on 12 points; Avellino are 5th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.