Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
69%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 9Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Monumental Luis Tróccoli
Cerro
14th · 37 pts0–2FULL TIME
Wanderers
7th · 51 pts31% Cerro
28% Draw
42% Wanderers
OUR PICK
Wanderers to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.30
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.24X3.6222.41
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.74
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.92
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.92
NG
52%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
CerroWanderers0.8Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.06Points per game1.46
29%Win rate40%
-24Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Cerro form
LLDWLH Central Espanol1–2
A Atletico Torque3–1
H Cerro Largo1–1
A Defensor Sporting2–3
H Wanderers0–2
Wanderers form
DLLLDA Penarol1–1
H Progreso0–1
A Racing Montevideo3–0
H Boston River1–3
A Cerrito2–2
Head to head
1
Cerro
1
Draw
3
Wanderers
Oct 2026Cerro – Wanderers0–2
Sept 2026Wanderers – Cerro1–1
Mar 2026Wanderers – Cerro3–0
Sept 2025Wanderers – Cerro0–1
Jun 2025Cerro – Wanderers1–2
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
3Atletico Torque34+1760
4Racing Montevideo35+1460
5Club Nacional34+1058
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Wanderers slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.08 for Cerro, 1.30 for Wanderers), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cerro sit 14th on 37 points; Wanderers are 7th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.