Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Cerro Largo
11th · 37 pts2–0FULL TIME
Boston River
12th · 37 pts41% Cerro
30% Draw
29% Boston
OUR PICK
Cerro Largo to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.44
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.92
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.44X3.3423.44
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.70
NG
59%
Double chance@1.41
1X
71%
Season stats
Cerro LargoBoston River0.9Goals per game1.0
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.06Points per game1.09
26%Win rate29%
-8Goal difference-12
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Cerro Largo form
No recent matches.
Boston River form
LWDWDA Cerro Largo2–0
H Defensor Sporting1–0
H CA River Plate0–0
A Wanderers1–3
H Juventud0–0
Head to head
0
Cerro
0
Draw
0
Boston
These sides haven't met recently.
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
3Atletico Torque34+1760
4Racing Montevideo35+1460
5Club Nacional34+1058
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Cerro Largo slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.15 for Cerro Largo, 0.92 for Boston River), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cerro Largo sit 11th on 37 points; Boston River are 12th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.