Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 10Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Cerro Largo
12th · 37 pts0–1FULL TIME
Albion FC
8th · 46 pts37% Cerro
27% Draw
36% Albion
OUR PICK
Cerro Largo to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.71
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.22
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.71X3.6722.79
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.00NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@2.00
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Cerro LargoAlbion FC0.9Goals per game1.4
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.06Points per game1.35
26%Win rate38%
-8Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)12
Cerro Largo form
LWLDLA Racing Montevideo3–1
H Boston River2–0
A Liverpool Montevideo1–0
A Cerro1–1
H Albion FC0–1
Albion FC form
DWWLWH Deportivo Maldonado0–0
A Central Espanol1–3
H Atletico Torque2–1
A Deportivo Maldonado4–1
A Cerro Largo0–1
Head to head
0
Cerro
2
Draw
3
Albion
Oct 2026Cerro Largo – Albion FC0–1
Apr 2026Albion FC – Cerro Largo2–2
Sept 2022Cerro Largo – Albion FC1–2
Apr 2022Albion FC – Cerro Largo2–1
Sept 2018Cerro Largo – Albion FC1–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Cerro Largo 37%, the draw 27%, Albion FC 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.24 for Cerro Largo, 1.22 for Albion FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cerro Largo sit 12th on 37 points; Albion FC are 8th on 46.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.