Over 1.5 goals@1.65
Over 1.5
61%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 11Friday, 16 October 2026 · Monumental Luis Tróccoli
Cerro
14th · 37 pts1–1FULL TIME
Cerro Largo
12th · 37 pts31% Cerro
30% Draw
38% Cerro
OUR PICK
Cerro Largo to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.62
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.18X3.3022.62
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.51
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.69
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.69
NG
59%
Double chance@1.43
12
70%
Season stats
CerroCerro Largo0.8Goals per game0.9
1.5Conceded per game1.2
1.06Points per game1.06
29%Win rate26%
-24Goal difference-8
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Cerro form
LLDWLH Central Espanol1–2
A Atletico Torque3–1
H Cerro Largo1–1
A Defensor Sporting2–3
H Wanderers0–2
Cerro Largo form
LWLDLA Racing Montevideo3–1
H Boston River2–0
A Liverpool Montevideo1–0
A Cerro1–1
H Albion FC0–1
Head to head
1
Cerro
2
Draw
2
Cerro
Oct 2026Cerro – Cerro Largo1–1
May 2026Cerro Largo – Cerro2–0
Apr 2026Cerro Largo – Cerro1–1
Sept 2025Cerro – Cerro Largo0–1
Jun 2025Cerro – Cerro Largo2–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Cerro 31%, the draw 30%, Cerro Largo 38%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.96 for Cerro, 1.09 for Cerro Largo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cerro sit 14th on 37 points; Cerro Largo are 12th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.