Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium
Cerezo Osaka
12th · 14 pts2–4FULL TIME
Kawasaki Frontale
7th · 22 pts29% Cerezo
24% Draw
47% Kawasaki
OUR PICK
Kawasaki Frontale to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.68
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.39X4.1822.15
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Cerezo OsakaKawasaki Frontale1.0Goals per game2.1
1.8Conceded per game1.7
1.08Points per game1.69
23%Win rate46%
-10Goal difference5
3Form, last 5 (pts)9
Cerezo Osaka form
LWDDLA Kashima4–1
A Mito Hollyhock1–3
H JEF United Chiba2–2
A Nagoya Grampus1–1
H Kawasaki Frontale2–4
Kawasaki Frontale form
LWWWWA Yokohama F. Marinos4–2
A Sagan Tosu0–2
H Fagiano Okayama2–1
H Vissel Kobe2–1
A Cerezo Osaka2–4
Head to head
2
Cerezo
1
Draw
2
Kawasaki
Oct 2026Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale2–4
Oct 2025Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale2–0
May 2025Kawasaki Frontale – Cerezo Osaka2–0
Jul 2024Kawasaki Frontale – Cerezo Osaka1–1
Apr 2024Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale1–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Kawasaki Frontale slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.29 for Cerezo Osaka, 1.68 for Kawasaki Frontale), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cerezo Osaka sit 12th on 14 points; Kawasaki Frontale are 7th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.