Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium
Cerezo Osaka
12th · 14 pts2–2FULL TIME
JEF United Chiba
18th · 10 pts42% Cerezo
26% Draw
32% JEF
OUR PICK
Cerezo Osaka to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.41X3.7923.11
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.91
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Cerezo OsakaJEF United Chiba1.0Goals per game1.2
1.8Conceded per game1.8
1.08Points per game0.77
23%Win rate15%
-10Goal difference-9
3Form, last 5 (pts)6
Cerezo Osaka form
LWDDLA Kashima4–1
A Mito Hollyhock1–3
H JEF United Chiba2–2
A Nagoya Grampus1–1
H Kawasaki Frontale2–4
JEF United Chiba form
WDLDDH Avispa Fukuoka3–0
A Cerezo Osaka2–2
A Urawa3–2
H Yokohama F. Marinos0–0
H V-varen Nagasaki1–1
Head to head
1
Cerezo
3
Draw
1
JEF
Oct 2026Cerezo Osaka – JEF United Chiba2–2
Nov 2016JEF United Chiba – Cerezo Osaka3–0
Apr 2016Cerezo Osaka – JEF United Chiba2–1
Aug 2015Cerezo Osaka – JEF United Chiba1–1
Apr 2015JEF United Chiba – Cerezo Osaka4–4
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Cerezo Osaka slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.39 for Cerezo Osaka, 1.19 for JEF United Chiba), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cerezo Osaka sit 12th on 14 points; JEF United Chiba are 18th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.