Over 1.5 goals@2.23
Over 1.5
45%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena
Central Norte
16th · 38 pts1–1FULL TIME
Ferro Carril Oeste
2nd · 66 pts26% Central
36% Draw
38% Ferro
OUR PICK
Ferro Carril Oeste to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
0.66 – 0.86
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.83X2.7722.65
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.24
Both scoreGG3.37NG1.39
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.24
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.39
NG
72%
Double chance@1.35
X2
74%
Season stats
Central NorteFerro Carril Oeste0.6Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game0.9
1.06Points per game1.83
19%Win rate53%
-9Goal difference7
6Form, last 5 (pts)5
Central Norte form
LDWDDA San Telmo1–0
H Acassuso0–0
A Chaco For Ever1–2
H Ferro Carril Oeste1–1
H Racing Cordoba1–1
Ferro Carril Oeste form
DLWDLA Acassuso0–0
H Chaco For Ever0–3
H Racing Cordoba1–0
A Central Norte1–1
H Deportivo Madryn0–2
Head to head
0
Central
1
Draw
1
Ferro
Oct 2026Central Norte – Ferro Carril Oeste1–1
May 2026Ferro Carril Oeste – Central Norte1–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Ferro Carril Oeste slight favourites, giving them a 38% chance of winning against 36% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (0.66 for Central Norte, 0.86 for Ferro Carril Oeste), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Central Norte sit 16th on 38 points; Ferro Carril Oeste are 2nd on 66.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.