Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 10Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Parque Palermo
Central Espanol
10th · 41 pts0–1FULL TIME
Club Nacional
4th · 61 pts30% Central
25% Draw
45% Club
OUR PICK
Club Nacional to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.53
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.32X3.9622.24
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Central EspanolClub Nacional1.0Goals per game1.5
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.17Points per game1.74
31%Win rate54%
-13Goal difference11
3Form, last 5 (pts)12
Central Espanol form
WLLLLA Cerro1–2
H Albion FC1–3
A Danubio1–0
H Danubio0–6
H Club Nacional0–1
Club Nacional form
WLWWWA Danubio1–2
H Liverpool Montevideo0–1
H Deportivo Maldonado3–2
H Rentistas3–0
A Central Espanol0–1
Head to head
1
Central
0
Draw
3
Club
Oct 2026Central Espanol – Club Nacional0–1
Apr 2026Club Nacional – Central Espanol0–1
Mar 2013Club Nacional – Central Espanol2–1
Sept 2012Central Espanol – Club Nacional0–2
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Club Nacional slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.21 for Central Espanol, 1.53 for Club Nacional), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Central Espanol sit 10th on 41 points; Club Nacional are 4th on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.