Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Municipal de Balaídos
Celta Vigo
25th · 3 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Union St. Gilloise
6th · 7 pts21% Celta
24% Draw
55% Union
OUR PICK
Union St. Gilloise to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.70
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.66X4.1621.83
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.27
X2
79%
Season stats
Celta VigoUnion St. Gilloise1.0Goals per game2.7
1.3Conceded per game0.3
1.00Points per game2.33
33%Win rate67%
-1Goal difference7
3Form, last 5 (pts)7
Celta Vigo form
LDWWLA Rayo Vallecano3–0
H Real Betis0–0
A Celtic1–2
H Alaves2–1
H Juventus1–2
Union St. Gilloise form
WWWWDA SK Beveren1–2
H Cercle Brugge5–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva4–0
H Nijlen3–0
H Real Sociedad1–1
Head to head
0
Celta
0
Draw
0
Union
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (0.97 for Celta Vigo, 1.70 for Union St. Gilloise), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Celta Vigo sit 25th on 3 points; Union St. Gilloise are 6th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.