Over 1.5 goals@1.66
Over 1.5
60%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Municipal de Balaídos
Celta Vigo
10th · 12 pts2–1FULL TIME
Alaves
11th · 12 pts40% Celta
30% Draw
29% Alaves
OUR PICK
Celta Vigo to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.91
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.48X3.3023.40
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.50
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.67
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.67
NG
60%
Double chance@1.42
1X
71%
Season stats
Celta VigoAlaves0.9Goals per game1.4
0.9Conceded per game1.5
1.09Points per game1.09
18%Win rate27%
0Goal difference-2
8Form, last 5 (pts)2
Celta Vigo form
LDWWLA Rayo Vallecano3–0
H Real Betis0–0
A Celtic1–2
H Alaves2–1
H Juventus1–2
Alaves form
LDLLDA Barcelona6–1
H Malaga1–1
A Celta Vigo2–1
H Atletico Madrid1–2
A Athletic Club0–0
Head to head
3
Celta
1
Draw
1
Alaves
Oct 2026Celta Vigo – Alaves2–1
Mar 2026Celta Vigo – Alaves3–4
Nov 2025Alaves – Celta Vigo0–1
Jan 2025Alaves – Celta Vigo1–1
Aug 2024Celta Vigo – Alaves2–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Celta Vigo slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.12 for Celta Vigo, 0.91 for Alaves), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Celta Vigo sit 10th on 12 points; Alaves are 11th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.