Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Stadion Z’dežele
Celje
29th · 1 pts2–2FULL TIME
Red Bull Salzburg
21st · 4 pts36% Celje
27% Draw
37% Red
OUR PICK
Red Bull Salzburg to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.68
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.29
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.78X3.7522.68
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.88
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.93
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
CeljeRed Bull Salzburg0.7Goals per game1.0
2.3Conceded per game2.0
0.33Points per game1.33
0%Win rate33%
-5Goal difference-3
1Form, last 5 (pts)4
Celje form
WDWDDH Nafta4–0
A Olimpija Ljubljana1–1
A Korotan Prevalje0–2
H Red Bull Salzburg2–2
A Maribor0–0
Red Bull Salzburg form
WWWDWH Austria Lustenau5–1
A Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz2–3
A Lask Linz1–3
A Celje2–2
H SCR Altach3–0
Head to head
0
Celje
1
Draw
0
Red
Oct 2026Celje – Red Bull Salzburg2–2
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Celje 36%, the draw 27%, Red Bull Salzburg 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.26 for Celje, 1.29 for Red Bull Salzburg), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Celje sit 29th on 1 points; Red Bull Salzburg are 21st on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.