Over 1.5 goals@1.75
Over 1.5
57%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Castelão
Ceara
16th · 43 pts2–2FULL TIME
Juventude
2nd · 65 pts22% Ceara
30% Draw
48% Juventude
OUR PICK
Juventude to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
0.71 – 1.21
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.60X3.3122.08
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.43
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.55
NG
64%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
CearaJuventude1.1Goals per game1.3
1.3Conceded per game0.7
1.19Points per game1.81
31%Win rate50%
-8Goal difference22
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
Ceara form
LLDLWA Athletic Club2–1
H Goias0–2
H Juventude2–2
A Botafogo SP1–0
H Criciuma1–0
Juventude form
DWDDWA Vila Nova2–2
H Nautico Recife4–0
A Ceara2–2
H São Bernardo2–2
A Ponte Preta0–2
Head to head
0
Ceara
1
Draw
4
Juventude
Oct 2026Ceara – Juventude2–2
Jun 2026Juventude – Ceara2–0
Aug 2025Ceara – Juventude0–1
Apr 2025Juventude – Ceara2–1
Nov 2023Ceara – Juventude1–3
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Juventude slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.71 for Ceara, 1.21 for Juventude), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ceara sit 16th on 43 points; Juventude are 2nd on 65.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.