BRASerie B · Matchday 35Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Estadio Castelão

Ceara

16th · 43 pts

0–2FULL TIME

Goias

9th · 52 pts

43% Ceara

29% Draw

28% Goias

OUR PICK

Ceara to win

Model probability 43% · fair odds

2.33

Expected goals

1.24 – 0.95

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.33X3.4723.53

Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.60

Both scoreGG2.14NG1.77

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.56

Over 1.5

64%

Over/Under 2.5@1.60

Under 2.5

63%

Both teams to score@1.77

56%

Double chance@1.39

72%

Season stats

CearaGoias

1.1Goals per game1.0

1.3Conceded per game1.1

1.23Points per game1.49

31%Win rate43%

-7Goal difference-4

7Form, last 5 (pts)10

Ceara form

LDLWW

H Goias0–2

H Juventude2–2

A Botafogo SP1–0

H Criciuma1–0

A Avai0–1

Goias form

WDWWL

A Ceara0–2

H Nautico Recife0–0

A Operario-PR0–2

H Athletic Club2–1

A Novorizontino3–0

Head to head

Ceara

Draw

Goias

Oct 2026Ceara – Goias0–2

Jul 2026Goias – Ceara2–0

Aug 2024Goias – Ceara2–1

Apr 2024Ceara – Goias1–1

Oct 2022Ceara – Goias1–1

Serie B table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Novorizontino36+3367

2Juventude36+2265

3Vila Nova36+1463

4Criciuma36+862

5Fortaleza EC35+1261

6CRB35+455

7Sport Recife36+955

8Atletico Goianiense35+954

9Goias35-452

10São Bernardo36+1152

Match preview

Our model makes Ceara slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.24 for Ceara, 0.95 for Goias), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Ceara sit 16th on 43 points; Goias are 9th on 52.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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