Over 1.5 goals@1.72
Over 1.5
58%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Thursday, 8 October 2026 · Estadio Castelão
Ceara
16th · 43 pts1–0FULL TIME
Criciuma
4th · 62 pts29% Ceara
31% Draw
39% Criciuma
OUR PICK
Criciuma to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.53
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.07
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.40X3.2122.53
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.42
X2
71%
Season stats
CearaCriciuma1.1Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game0.8
1.23Points per game1.72
31%Win rate50%
-7Goal difference8
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Ceara form
LDLWWH Goias0–2
H Juventude2–2
A Botafogo SP1–0
H Criciuma1–0
A Avai0–1
Criciuma form
WLWWLH Ponte Preta2–0
A Sport Recife2–1
A São Bernardo0–1
H America Mineiro1–0
A Ceara1–0
Head to head
3
Ceara
2
Draw
0
Criciuma
Oct 2026Ceara – Criciuma1–0
Jun 2026Criciuma – Ceara1–1
Sept 2023Ceara – Criciuma1–0
May 2023Criciuma – Ceara1–2
Nov 2017Criciuma – Ceara1–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Criciuma slight favourites, giving them a 39% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.88 for Ceara, 1.07 for Criciuma), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ceara sit 16th on 43 points; Criciuma are 4th on 62.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.