Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
BRASerie B · Matchday 37Sunday, 8 November 2026
Ceara
16th · 43 pts23:15KICK-OFF WAT
America Mineiro
19th · 26 pts56% Ceara
26% Draw
18% America
OUR PICK
Ceara to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.74
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X3.8825.54
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.69
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.69
NG
59%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
CearaAmerica Mineiro1.1Goals per game0.7
1.3Conceded per game1.5
1.19Points per game0.72
31%Win rate19%
-8Goal difference-29
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
Ceara form
LLDLWA Athletic Club2–1
H Goias0–2
H Juventude2–2
A Botafogo SP1–0
H Criciuma1–0
America Mineiro form
WWWLLA Londrina1–3
H Cuiaba1–0
H Operario-PR1–0
A Criciuma1–0
H Fortaleza EC0–1
Head to head
2
Ceara
2
Draw
1
America
Jul 2026America Mineiro – Ceara1–1
Nov 2024Ceara – America Mineiro1–0
Jul 2024America Mineiro – Ceara2–2
Oct 2022Ceara – America Mineiro1–2
Jun 2022America Mineiro – Ceara0–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Ceara clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.53 for Ceara, 0.74 for America Mineiro), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ceara sit 16th on 43 points; America Mineiro are 19th on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.