Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ITASerie B · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Catanzaro
20th · 6 pts1–3FULL TIME
Mantova
4th · 18 pts27% Catanzaro
24% Draw
49% Mantova
OUR PICK
Mantova to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.68
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.76X4.1422.03
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
CatanzaroMantova1.1Goals per game1.5
2.2Conceded per game1.1
0.60Points per game1.80
10%Win rate50%
-11Goal difference4
3Form, last 5 (pts)7
Catanzaro form
DDLDLH Padova1–1
A Benevento1–1
H Ascoli1–6
A Hellas Verona2–2
H Mantova1–3
Mantova form
DLWLWA Modena1–1
H Cremonese0–2
A Virtus Entella0–1
H Palermo0–2
A Catanzaro1–3
Head to head
2
Catanzaro
2
Draw
1
Mantova
Oct 2026Catanzaro – Mantova1–3
Feb 2026Catanzaro – Mantova2–0
Oct 2025Mantova – Catanzaro1–3
May 2025Mantova – Catanzaro0–0
Nov 2024Catanzaro – Mantova2–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Mantova slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.17 for Catanzaro, 1.68 for Mantova), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Catanzaro sit 20th on 6 points; Mantova are 4th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.