Over 1.5 goals@1.72
Over 1.5
58%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 11Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal Castalia
Castellón
1st · 26 pts4–0FULL TIME
Sporting Gijon
8th · 19 pts60% Castellón
27% Draw
13% Sporting
OUR PICK
Castellón to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.52
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.68X3.7127.45
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.45
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.45
NG
69%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
CastellónSporting Gijon2.0Goals per game1.0
0.4Conceded per game1.2
2.36Points per game1.73
73%Win rate55%
18Goal difference-2
10Form, last 5 (pts)9
Castellón form
WWWLDA Conquense0–3
H Sporting Gijon4–0
A Las Palmas0–3
A FC Andorra1–0
H AD Ceuta FC1–1
Sporting Gijon form
DWLWWA AD Ceuta FC0–0
A Guijuelo1–3
A Castellón4–0
H Albacete2–1
A Cadiz0–1
Head to head
0
Castellón
0
Draw
0
Sporting
These sides haven't met recently.
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón11+1826
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Girona12+1121
5Granada CF11+420
6Burgos11+420
7Mallorca11+719
8Sporting Gijon11-219
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Castellón clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.43 for Castellón, 0.52 for Sporting Gijon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Castellón sit 1st on 26 points; Sporting Gijon are 8th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.