Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 8Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal de Castalia
Castellón
1st · 27 pts1–1FULL TIME
AD Ceuta FC
22nd · 5 pts90% Castellón
8% Draw
2% AD
OUR PICK
Castellón to win
Model probability 90% · fair odds
1.11
Expected goals
3.19 – 0.40
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.11X12.98241.84
Goals 2.5Over1.45Under3.04
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
68%
Double chance@1.02
1X
98%
Season stats
CastellónAD Ceuta FC1.9Goals per game0.8
0.4Conceded per game2.3
2.25Points per game0.42
67%Win rate8%
18Goal difference-17
8Form, last 5 (pts)1
Castellón form
DWWWLA Burgos1–1
A Conquense0–3
H Sporting Gijon4–0
A Las Palmas0–3
A FC Andorra1–0
AD Ceuta FC form
LWLLLH Sporting Gijon0–2
A Poblense1–2
A Cadiz3–1
H Oviedo1–2
H Sabadell1–2
Head to head
0
Castellón
0
Draw
0
AD
These sides haven't met recently.
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Castellón clear favourites, giving them a 90% chance of winning against 8% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (3.19 for Castellón, 0.40 for AD Ceuta FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Castellón sit 1st on 27 points; AD Ceuta FC are 22nd on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.