Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 10Friday, 30 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia
17th · 7 pts0–2FULL TIME
Sporting CP
3rd · 21 pts12% Casa
18% Draw
70% Sporting
OUR PICK
Sporting CP to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.43
Expected goals
0.84 – 2.29
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X218.19X5.6021.43
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.96NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.96
GG
51%
Double chance@1.14
X2
88%
Season stats
Casa PiaSporting CP0.5Goals per game2.3
1.9Conceded per game1.1
0.70Points per game2.10
20%Win rate60%
-14Goal difference12
6Form, last 5 (pts)8
Casa Pia form
LWWLWH Sporting CP0–2
A Estrela0–2
A Alpendorada0–1
H Santa Clara0–1
A Estoril1–2
Sporting CP form
WWLLWA Casa Pia0–2
H Maritimo2–1
H Academico Viseu1–2
H Lask Linz2–3
A Lens0–2
Head to head
0
Casa
0
Draw
5
Sporting
Oct 2026Casa Pia – Sporting CP0–2
Jan 2026Sporting CP – Casa Pia3–0
Aug 2025Casa Pia – Sporting CP0–2
Mar 2025Casa Pia – Sporting CP1–3
Oct 2024Sporting CP – Casa Pia2–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Sporting CP clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (0.84 for Casa Pia, 2.29 for Sporting CP), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Casa Pia sit 17th on 7 points; Sporting CP are 3rd on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.