Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia
17th · 7 pts0–1FULL TIME
Santa Clara
4th · 21 pts12% Casa
22% Draw
66% Santa
OUR PICK
Santa Clara to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
0.58 – 1.78
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X218.69X4.5421.50
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.13
X2
88%
Season stats
Casa PiaSanta Clara0.5Goals per game1.5
1.9Conceded per game0.6
0.70Points per game2.10
20%Win rate60%
-14Goal difference9
6Form, last 5 (pts)10
Casa Pia form
LWWLWH Sporting CP0–2
A Estrela0–2
A Alpendorada0–1
H Santa Clara0–1
A Estoril1–2
Santa Clara form
WLLWDA Maritimo0–2
H Benfica1–2
A Mafra3–2
A Casa Pia0–1
H SC Braga0–0
Head to head
0
Casa
1
Draw
4
Santa
Oct 2026Casa Pia – Santa Clara0–1
Apr 2026Casa Pia – Santa Clara0–0
Dec 2025Santa Clara – Casa Pia1–0
Feb 2025Santa Clara – Casa Pia2–1
Aug 2024Casa Pia – Santa Clara0–2
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes Santa Clara clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.58 for Casa Pia, 1.78 for Santa Clara), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Casa Pia sit 17th on 7 points; Santa Clara are 4th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.