Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ITASerie B · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadio dei Marmi
Carrarese
15th · 10 pts17:15KICK-OFF WAT
Sampdoria
19th · 8 pts48% Carrarese
27% Draw
25% Sampdoria
OUR PICK
Carrarese to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.96
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.08X3.7523.98
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.89
NG
53%
Double chance@1.34
1X
75%
Season stats
CarrareseSampdoria0.9Goals per game1.0
1.3Conceded per game1.8
1.00Points per game0.80
30%Win rate20%
-4Goal difference-8
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Carrarese form
LWLWWA Hellas Verona3–0
H Arezzo2–1
A Palermo2–1
H Modena2–1
A Padova0–2
Sampdoria form
WLDLLH Virtus Entella2–0
A Ascoli2–0
A Sudtirol1–1
H Arezzo1–2
A Avellino4–1
Head to head
2
Carrarese
1
Draw
1
Sampdoria
Mar 2026Carrarese – Sampdoria2–0
Dec 2025Sampdoria – Carrarese3–2
Apr 2025Carrarese – Sampdoria1–0
Dec 2024Sampdoria – Carrarese1–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Carrarese slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.44 for Carrarese, 0.96 for Sampdoria), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Carrarese sit 15th on 10 points; Sampdoria are 19th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.