Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
ITASerie B · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadio dei Marmi
Carrarese
15th · 10 pts2–1FULL TIME
Modena
2nd · 20 pts20% Carrarese
26% Draw
54% Modena
OUR PICK
Modena to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.54
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.01X3.8921.84
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
CarrareseModena0.9Goals per game1.8
1.3Conceded per game1.0
1.00Points per game2.00
30%Win rate60%
-4Goal difference8
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Carrarese form
LWLWWA Hellas Verona3–0
H Arezzo2–1
A Palermo2–1
H Modena2–1
A Padova0–2
Modena form
DWWLWH Mantova1–1
A Vicenza Virtus1–2
H Cesena3–0
A Carrarese2–1
H Hellas Verona3–2
Head to head
2
Carrarese
1
Draw
2
Modena
Oct 2026Carrarese – Modena2–1
Feb 2026Modena – Carrarese2–0
Oct 2025Carrarese – Modena0–0
May 2025Carrarese – Modena2–1
Nov 2024Modena – Carrarese2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Modena clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.82 for Carrarese, 1.54 for Modena), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Carrarese sit 15th on 10 points; Modena are 2nd on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.