Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
67%
ITASerie B · Matchday 9Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Stadio dei Marmi
Carrarese
15th · 10 pts2–1FULL TIME
Arezzo
13th · 11 pts47% Carrarese
28% Draw
25% Arezzo
OUR PICK
Carrarese to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.92
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.12X3.6323.97
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.67
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.34
1X
75%
Season stats
CarrareseArezzo0.9Goals per game0.9
1.3Conceded per game1.9
1.00Points per game1.10
30%Win rate30%
-4Goal difference-10
9Form, last 5 (pts)5
Carrarese form
LWLWWA Hellas Verona3–0
H Arezzo2–1
A Palermo2–1
H Modena2–1
A Padova0–2
Arezzo form
DLLWDH Ascoli0–0
A Carrarese2–1
H Benevento0–3
A Sampdoria1–2
H Cremonese0–0
Head to head
3
Carrarese
1
Draw
1
Arezzo
Oct 2026Carrarese – Arezzo2–1
Jan 2024Carrarese – Arezzo2–3
Sept 2023Arezzo – Carrarese1–3
Nov 2019Carrarese – Arezzo2–2
Mar 2019Carrarese – Arezzo3–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Carrarese slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.37 for Carrarese, 0.92 for Arezzo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Carrarese sit 15th on 10 points; Arezzo are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.