Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff
17th · 14 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
West Ham
8th · 22 pts29% Cardiff
21% Draw
50% West
OUR PICK
West Ham to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.98
Expected goals
1.57 – 2.12
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.49X4.7821.98
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.43
GG
70%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
CardiffWest Ham1.5Goals per game2.5
1.5Conceded per game1.4
1.08Points per game1.69
23%Win rate46%
-1Goal difference15
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Cardiff form
LWDWLA Wolves3–0
H Birmingham1–0
A Middlesbrough2–2
H Watford5–1
A Blackburn2–1
West Ham form
LLWWDH West Brom1–3
H Southampton2–3
A Swansea0–1
A Lincoln0–6
H QPR1–1
Head to head
1
Cardiff
0
Draw
4
West
Mar 2019Cardiff – West Ham2–0
Dec 2018West Ham – Cardiff3–1
Jan 2014Cardiff – West Ham0–2
Sept 2013West Ham – Cardiff3–2
Aug 2013West Ham – Cardiff2–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes West Ham slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.98 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.57 for Cardiff, 2.12 for West Ham), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cardiff sit 17th on 14 points; West Ham are 8th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.