Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
WALPremier League · Matchday 13Friday, 9 October 2026 · Cyncoed Campus
Cardiff MET
8th · 22 pts1–3FULL TIME
Trefelin
15th · 6 pts84% Cardiff
12% Draw
5% Trefelin
OUR PICK
Cardiff MET to win
Model probability 84% · fair odds
1.19
Expected goals
2.74 – 0.51
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.19X8.63221.39
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.60
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.60
NG
63%
Double chance@1.05
1X
95%
Season stats
Cardiff METTrefelin1.7Goals per game0.5
1.5Conceded per game2.4
1.47Points per game0.40
40%Win rate7%
3Goal difference-28
7Form, last 5 (pts)3
Cardiff MET form
LDWLWH Penybont0–5
A Colwyn Bay2–2
H Ynyshir Albions4–0
H Trefelin1–3
A Llandudno0–1
Trefelin form
LLWWLA Barry Town3–0
H Flint Town United0–2
H Llantwit Major4–1
A Cardiff MET1–3
A Airbus UK3–0
Head to head
0
Cardiff
0
Draw
1
Trefelin
Oct 2026Cardiff MET – Trefelin1–3
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Cardiff MET clear favourites, giving them a 84% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.19 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.74 for Cardiff MET, 0.51 for Trefelin), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cardiff MET sit 8th on 22 points; Trefelin are 15th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.