Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
WALPremier League · Matchday 15Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Cyncoed Campus
Cardiff MET
8th · 22 pts0–5FULL TIME
Penybont
3rd · 33 pts25% Cardiff
24% Draw
51% Penybont
OUR PICK
Penybont to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.71
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.97X4.1821.96
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
55%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Cardiff METPenybont1.7Goals per game2.1
1.5Conceded per game0.8
1.47Points per game2.36
40%Win rate71%
3Goal difference19
7Form, last 5 (pts)12
Cardiff MET form
No recent matches.
Penybont form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Cardiff
0
Draw
0
Penybont
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Penybont slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.13 for Cardiff MET, 1.71 for Penybont), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cardiff MET sit 8th on 22 points; Penybont are 3rd on 33.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.