Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 15Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff
17th · 14 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Burnley
22nd · 9 pts55% Cardiff
21% Draw
23% Burnley
OUR PICK
Cardiff to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.25
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.81X4.6724.31
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.61
GG
62%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
CardiffBurnley1.5Goals per game1.3
1.5Conceded per game1.9
1.08Points per game0.69
23%Win rate8%
-1Goal difference-8
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
Cardiff form
LWDWLA Wolves3–0
H Birmingham1–0
A Middlesbrough2–2
H Watford5–1
A Blackburn2–1
Burnley form
DLLDWH Portsmouth0–0
A Lincoln4–1
H Wolves1–2
H Charlton2–2
A Watford0–4
Head to head
1
Cardiff
1
Draw
3
Burnley
Sept 2025Burnley – Cardiff1–2
Mar 2025Cardiff – Burnley1–2
Aug 2024Burnley – Cardiff5–0
May 2023Burnley – Cardiff3–0
Oct 2022Cardiff – Burnley1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Cardiff clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.03 for Cardiff, 1.25 for Burnley), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cardiff sit 17th on 14 points; Burnley are 22nd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.