Over 1.5 goals@1.54
Over 1.5
65%
ZIMPremier Soccer League · Matchday 30Sunday, 11 October 2026 · National Sports Stadium
CAPS United
5th · 51 pts0–0FULL TIME
Simba Bhora
11th · 39 pts52% CAPS
27% Draw
21% Simba
OUR PICK
CAPS United to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.80
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.94X3.6824.73
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.62
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
CAPS UnitedSimba Bhora1.1Goals per game1.0
0.8Conceded per game1.0
1.59Points per game1.22
41%Win rate28%
10Goal difference-2
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
CAPS United form
LWDWDH Scotland Mabvuku0–1
A Platinum0–2
H Simba Bhora0–0
A MWOS0–1
H Dynamos1–1
Simba Bhora form
LWDLDA Triangle United2–0
H Herentals2–1
A CAPS United0–0
H Chicken Inn1–2
A Kariba0–0
Head to head
1
CAPS
2
Draw
2
Simba
Oct 2026CAPS United – Simba Bhora0–0
May 2026Simba Bhora – CAPS United1–1
Oct 2025Simba Bhora – CAPS United0–1
May 2025CAPS United – Simba Bhora1–3
Nov 2024Simba Bhora – CAPS United2–1
Premier Soccer League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hardrock32+3669
2Scotland Mabvuku31+3564
3Ngezi Platinum32+1356
4Dynamos32+1752
5CAPS United32+1051
6Herentals32-148
7MWOS32+945
8Highlanders32+444
9Platinum32043
10Chicken Inn31-143
Match preview
Our model makes CAPS United clear favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.42 for CAPS United, 0.80 for Simba Bhora), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
CAPS United sit 5th on 51 points; Simba Bhora are 11th on 39.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.