Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Kooi Stadion
Cambuur
9th · 15 pts2–2FULL TIME
AZ Alkmaar
5th · 20 pts37% Cambuur
23% Draw
40% AZ
OUR PICK
AZ Alkmaar to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.69
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.73X4.3422.48
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.54NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.54
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
CambuurAZ Alkmaar2.1Goals per game1.8
2.0Conceded per game1.2
1.36Points per game1.82
36%Win rate55%
1Goal difference7
11Form, last 5 (pts)4
Cambuur form
WWWDWH GO Ahead Eagles4–0
A Kloetinge0–2
A Willem II1–6
H AZ Alkmaar2–2
A PEC Zwolle0–1
AZ Alkmaar form
LLWDWA Ajax1–0
H Twente0–2
A Ararat-Armenia0–4
A Cambuur2–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
Head to head
0
Cambuur
2
Draw
3
AZ
Oct 2026Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar2–2
Feb 2023AZ Alkmaar – Cambuur2–1
Aug 2022Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar0–1
Jan 2022AZ Alkmaar – Cambuur0–0
Oct 2021Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar1–3
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Cambuur 37%, the draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.60 for Cambuur, 1.69 for AZ Alkmaar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cambuur sit 9th on 15 points; AZ Alkmaar are 5th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.