Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
70%
ITASerie A · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari
12th · 13 pts0–2FULL TIME
Bologna
9th · 14 pts38% Cagliari
28% Draw
35% Bologna
OUR PICK
Cagliari to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.18
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.65X3.6322.87
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.77
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
CagliariBologna0.9Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.30Points per game1.40
40%Win rate40%
-6Goal difference1
1Form, last 5 (pts)12
Cagliari form
LLLLDA Lazio2–1
A AS Roma4–2
H Bologna0–2
A Monza4–0
H Juventus1–1
Bologna form
WWWLWH Monza2–1
A AC Milan2–4
A Cagliari0–2
H Inter1–3
A Lecce1–2
Head to head
0
Cagliari
1
Draw
4
Bologna
Oct 2026Cagliari – Bologna0–2
May 2026Bologna – Cagliari0–0
Oct 2025Cagliari – Bologna0–2
Mar 2025Bologna – Cagliari2–1
Oct 2024Cagliari – Bologna0–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Cagliari 38%, the draw 28%, Bologna 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.24 for Cagliari, 1.18 for Bologna), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cagliari sit 12th on 13 points; Bologna are 9th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.