Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
87%
WALPremier League · Matchday 14Friday, 23 October 2026 · The Oval
Caernarfon Town
4th · 29 pts3–1FULL TIME
Briton Ferry
12th · 15 pts76% Caernarfon
14% Draw
10% Briton
OUR PICK
Caernarfon Town to win
Model probability 76% · fair odds
1.32
Expected goals
2.72 – 0.88
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.32X6.90210.38
Goals 2.5Over1.44Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
Caernarfon TownBriton Ferry2.8Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.7
1.93Points per game1.00
60%Win rate27%
23Goal difference-9
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Caernarfon Town form
LWWWLA Airbus UK3–2
H Briton Ferry3–1
A Flint Town United1–3
A Haverfordwest County AFC1–2
H Barry Town0–1
Briton Ferry form
WLWLWH Llandudno3–0
A Caernarfon Town3–1
H Afan United5–0
H GAP Connah S Quay FC1–2
H Colwyn Bay1–0
Head to head
5
Caernarfon
0
Draw
0
Briton
Oct 2026Caernarfon Town – Briton Ferry3–1
Nov 2025Caernarfon Town – Briton Ferry4–1
Sept 2025Briton Ferry – Caernarfon Town2–5
Nov 2024Briton Ferry – Caernarfon Town0–1
Sept 2024Caernarfon Town – Briton Ferry3–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Caernarfon Town clear favourites, giving them a 76% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.72 for Caernarfon Town, 0.88 for Briton Ferry), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Caernarfon Town sit 4th on 29 points; Briton Ferry are 12th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.