Over 1.5 goals@1.05
Over 1.5
95%
WALPremier League · Matchday 12Saturday, 3 October 2026 · The Oval
Caernarfon Town
4th · 29 pts0–1FULL TIME
Barry Town
6th · 28 pts71% Caernarfon
14% Draw
15% Barry
OUR PICK
Caernarfon Town to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.41
Expected goals
3.30 – 1.54
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.41X7.0426.77
Goals 2.5Over1.16Under6.74
Both scoreGG1.32NG3.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.16
Over 2.5
86%
Both teams to score@1.32
GG
76%
Double chance@1.17
12
86%
Season stats
Caernarfon TownBarry Town2.8Goals per game2.1
1.3Conceded per game1.7
1.93Points per game1.87
60%Win rate60%
23Goal difference6
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Caernarfon Town form
LWWWLA Airbus UK3–2
H Briton Ferry3–1
A Flint Town United1–3
A Haverfordwest County AFC1–2
H Barry Town0–1
Barry Town form
WLWLWH Trefelin3–0
H Haverfordwest County AFC1–3
H Tredegar Town2–0
A Penybont3–1
A Caernarfon Town0–1
Head to head
1
Caernarfon
1
Draw
3
Barry
Oct 2026Caernarfon Town – Barry Town0–1
Mar 2026Barry Town – Caernarfon Town2–1
Feb 2026Caernarfon Town – Barry Town0–2
Oct 2025Barry Town – Caernarfon Town2–2
Sept 2025Caernarfon Town – Barry Town3–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Caernarfon Town clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.8 goals in total (3.30 for Caernarfon Town, 1.54 for Barry Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Caernarfon Town sit 4th on 29 points; Barry Town are 6th on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.