Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
70%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · JP Financial Estadio
Cadiz
19th · 10 pts0–1FULL TIME
Sporting Gijon
5th · 22 pts46% Cadiz
27% Draw
27% Sporting
OUR PICK
Cadiz to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.01
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X3.7223.71
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.77
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
CadizSporting Gijon1.3Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.1
0.91Points per game1.83
18%Win rate58%
0Goal difference0
7Form, last 5 (pts)12
Cadiz form
WWLLWA Xerez1–3
H AD Ceuta FC3–1
A Granada CF2–0
H Sporting Gijon0–1
H Leganes4–0
Sporting Gijon form
WWLWWA AD Ceuta FC0–2
A Guijuelo1–3
A Castellón4–0
H Albacete2–1
A Cadiz0–1
Head to head
2
Cadiz
0
Draw
3
Sporting
Oct 2026Cadiz – Sporting Gijon0–1
Apr 2026Sporting Gijon – Cadiz3–0
Jan 2026Cadiz – Sporting Gijon3–2
Apr 2025Cadiz – Sporting Gijon1–0
Nov 2024Sporting Gijon – Cadiz2–0
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Cadiz slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.41 for Cadiz, 1.01 for Sporting Gijon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cadiz sit 19th on 10 points; Sporting Gijon are 5th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.