Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 11Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Nuevo Mirandilla
Cadiz
19th · 10 pts3–1FULL TIME
AD Ceuta FC
22nd · 5 pts63% Cadiz
22% Draw
16% AD
OUR PICK
Cadiz to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.84
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.60X4.6326.30
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.94
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.94
NG
52%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
CadizAD Ceuta FC1.3Goals per game0.8
1.3Conceded per game2.3
0.91Points per game0.42
18%Win rate8%
0Goal difference-17
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
Cadiz form
WWLLWA Xerez1–3
H AD Ceuta FC3–1
A Granada CF2–0
H Sporting Gijon0–1
H Leganes4–0
AD Ceuta FC form
LWLLLH Sporting Gijon0–2
A Poblense1–2
A Cadiz3–1
H Oviedo1–2
H Sabadell1–2
Head to head
1
Cadiz
1
Draw
3
AD
Oct 2026Cadiz – AD Ceuta FC3–1
Jul 2026Cadiz – AD Ceuta FC1–3
Mar 2026AD Ceuta FC – Cadiz2–1
Sept 2025Cadiz – AD Ceuta FC0–0
Aug 2025Cadiz – AD Ceuta FC0–3
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Cadiz clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.91 for Cadiz, 0.84 for AD Ceuta FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cadiz sit 19th on 10 points; AD Ceuta FC are 22nd on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.