Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Ciudad de Caseros
CA Estudiantes
8th · 49 pts2–0FULL TIME
Deportivo Moron
3rd · 61 pts31% CA
27% Draw
42% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Deportivo Moron to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.33
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.21X3.6822.40
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.79
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
CA EstudiantesDeportivo Moron1.0Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.0
1.40Points per game1.69
37%Win rate50%
1Goal difference16
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
CA Estudiantes form
DLWLWH Los Andes1–1
A Godoy Cruz6–3
H Deportivo Moron2–0
A Colon Santa Fe1–0
H San Miguel2–1
Deportivo Moron form
WLLLWH Ciudad de Bolívar2–0
A Almirante Brown1–0
H Atletico Mitre0–2
A CA Estudiantes2–0
H All Boys2–1
Head to head
2
CA
1
Draw
2
Deportivo
Oct 2026CA Estudiantes – Deportivo Moron2–0
May 2026Deportivo Moron – CA Estudiantes2–0
Sept 2025Deportivo Moron – CA Estudiantes1–1
Apr 2025CA Estudiantes – Deportivo Moron0–1
Apr 2022Deportivo Moron – CA Estudiantes0–1
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Moron slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.11 for CA Estudiantes, 1.33 for Deportivo Moron), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
CA Estudiantes sit 8th on 49 points; Deportivo Moron are 3rd on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.