Over 1.5 goals@1.76
Over 1.5
57%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Pirelli Stadium
Burton Albion
15th · 17 pts0–0FULL TIME
Bradford
7th · 22 pts33% Burton
32% Draw
35% Bradford
OUR PICK
Bradford to win
Model probability 35% · fair odds
2.86
Expected goals
0.94 – 0.97
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.00X3.1522.86
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.43
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.61
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.61
NG
62%
Double chance@1.46
12
68%
Season stats
Burton AlbionBradford1.3Goals per game0.8
1.5Conceded per game0.6
1.21Points per game1.69
29%Win rate46%
-3Goal difference2
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Burton Albion form
LWDDLA Wycombe2–0
H Leyton Orient2–1
H Bradford0–0
A Peterborough2–2
A Doncaster1–0
Bradford form
LWDDWH Huddersfield0–3
H Peterborough2–0
A Oxford United0–0
A Burton Albion0–0
H Stevenage2–0
Head to head
3
Burton
2
Draw
0
Bradford
Oct 2026Burton Albion – Bradford0–0
Mar 2026Burton Albion – Bradford2–1
Nov 2025Bradford – Burton Albion1–2
Oct 2022Burton Albion – Bradford4–0
Jan 2019Burton Albion – Bradford1–1
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Burton Albion 33%, the draw 32%, Bradford 35%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.94 for Burton Albion, 0.97 for Bradford), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Burton Albion sit 15th on 17 points; Bradford are 7th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.