Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Turf Moor
Burnley
22nd · 9 pts0–0FULL TIME
Portsmouth
11th · 19 pts33% Burnley
26% Draw
41% Portsmouth
OUR PICK
Portsmouth to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.00X3.8722.45
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
BurnleyPortsmouth1.3Goals per game1.2
1.9Conceded per game1.2
0.69Points per game1.46
8%Win rate38%
-8Goal difference1
5Form, last 5 (pts)11
Burnley form
DLLDWH Portsmouth0–0
A Lincoln4–1
H Wolves1–2
H Charlton2–2
A Watford0–4
Portsmouth form
DWDWWA Burnley0–0
H Millwall2–1
A Wolves1–1
A Norwich0–1
H Sheffield Utd3–2
Head to head
2
Burnley
2
Draw
1
Portsmouth
Oct 2026Burnley – Portsmouth0–0
Feb 2025Portsmouth – Burnley0–0
Sept 2024Burnley – Portsmouth2–1
Mar 2012Portsmouth – Burnley1–5
Dec 2011Burnley – Portsmouth0–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Burnley 33%, the draw 26%, Portsmouth 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.26 for Burnley, 1.42 for Portsmouth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Burnley sit 22nd on 9 points; Portsmouth are 11th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.