Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 10Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Turf Moor
Burnley
22nd · 9 pts2–2FULL TIME
Charlton
20th · 14 pts50% Burnley
25% Draw
25% Charlton
OUR PICK
Burnley to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.02
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.02
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.02X3.9324.01
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
BurnleyCharlton1.3Goals per game0.8
1.9Conceded per game1.6
0.69Points per game1.08
8%Win rate23%
-8Goal difference-10
5Form, last 5 (pts)2
Burnley form
DLLDWH Portsmouth0–0
A Lincoln4–1
H Wolves1–2
H Charlton2–2
A Watford0–4
Charlton form
LLLDDA Middlesbrough3–0
H Norwich1–3
A Watford2–0
A Burnley2–2
H Bristol City1–1
Head to head
4
Burnley
1
Draw
0
Charlton
Oct 2026Burnley – Charlton2–2
May 2016Charlton – Burnley0–3
Dec 2015Burnley – Charlton4–0
Mar 2014Charlton – Burnley0–3
Sept 2013Burnley – Charlton3–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Burnley slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.02 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.55 for Burnley, 1.02 for Charlton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Burnley sit 22nd on 9 points; Charlton are 20th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.