Over 1.5 goals@1.58
Over 1.5
63%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 10Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Municipal El Plantio
Burgos
8th · 21 pts1–0FULL TIME
Sabadell
10th · 17 pts42% Burgos
29% Draw
29% Sabadell
OUR PICK
Burgos to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.94
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X3.4323.50
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.40
1X
71%
Season stats
BurgosSabadell1.4Goals per game1.0
1.1Conceded per game0.9
1.75Points per game1.42
50%Win rate33%
4Goal difference1
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
Burgos form
DWWWLH Castellón1–1
A Laredo2–4
A FC Andorra2–3
H Sabadell1–0
H Granada CF0–1
Sabadell form
LDLWDA Albacete2–1
H Tenerife1–1
A Burgos1–0
A AD Ceuta FC1–2
H FC Andorra0–0
Head to head
1
Burgos
0
Draw
0
Sabadell
Oct 2026Burgos – Sabadell1–0
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Burgos slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.21 for Burgos, 0.94 for Sabadell), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Burgos sit 8th on 21 points; Sabadell are 10th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.